Betting website Polymarket: Donald Trump odds-on favorite to win it all in November

10/25/2024 / By Ava Grace

Betting markets believe former President Donald Trump will be reelected and will win all seven swing states in the process.

Betting website Polymarket projects that Trump has a 59.7 percent chance of winning the presidency compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 40.2 percent. Over $584 million worth of bets have been placed on a Trump victory on the platform, compared to $393 million worth of bets for Harris.

The betting website had shown a close race between Trump and Harris from August up until this month. Still, Trump has pulled away in the last two weeks – suggesting that the electoral momentum has decisively shifted back in the former president’s camp.

RealClearPolitics‘ polling tracker shows that none of the seven key swing states are “toss-up” states. It comes after Wisconsin flipped Republican, with the former president now 0.1 points ahead.

Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania also flipped in favor of Trump in the past few weeks, with the former president 0.5 points ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania and 0.9 points ahead in Michigan. (Related: Elon Musk campaigning for Donald Trump in crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.)

Trump had already been in the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina since at least September. He is currently between 0.9 and 1.4 points ahead in all three of these states.

“President Trump is outworking Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek.

RealClearPolitics‘ aggregate suggests that Trump will win the Electoral College with at least 296 electoral votes, far above the minimum 270 required for a majority.

Polls show Trump gaining ground in swing states

Presidential race polling shows that Trump has gained ground in several key swing states, with polling firm Rasmussen projecting a win for Trump in Pennsylvania. Rasmussen Reports’ head pollster, Mark Mitchell, said other polls had oversampled Democrats, overestimating Harris’ true level of support. He noted similar trends in the 2020 election as polls overestimated support for Joe Biden.

The latest election data from the critical swing state of Arizona shows that Trump is leading his Democratic opponent 51 to 48 percent. With just over two weeks until Election Day, Trump’s three-point lead indicates that the Republican nominee is gaining momentum – likely across the entire Sun Belt.

A similar survey by YouGov, conducted on behalf of CBS, showed that nearly 70 percent of Arizonans say things in America are going somewhat or very badly. Meanwhile, 65 percent of those surveyed say they believe the current economic conditions are fairly or very bad.

Polls also show that Trump has made significant gains among traditionally Democratic-voting ethnic minorities, including the Hispanic vote – which is crucial for winning Arizona and Nevada, where they comprise around 30 percent of the population – as well as Black men.

Trump has also gained ground among Muslims and Arab Americans. Trump was recently endorsed by the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, the country’s only city with a Muslim-majority population, and the Pakistani American Public Affairs Committee.

Visit Trump.news for more information on the former president’s campaign.

Watch this report from Fox News claiming that the Harris campaign is “nervous” about Trump’s recent gains in swing states.

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