Conventional polls show Trump and Harris locked in DEAD HEAT as Election Day nears… they are setting up a STEAL

10/18/2024 / By Laura Harris

National and key battleground state polls reveal that former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are still locked in a dead heat as Election Day nears.

The polls, conducted earlier this October among thousands of likely and registered voters, indicate that the high stakes and fierce competition between Trump and Harris is tighter than ever. National polls reveal that Trump is experiencing a resurgence in support, while key battleground state polls show that candidates narrowly lead each other in certain states. (Related: POLL: More voters trust Donald Trump over Kamala Harris on immigration policy and border security.)

For instance, an ABC News/Ipsos poll, conducted from Oct. 4 to 8, shows that Trump significantly closed the gap with Harris. The Democratic presidential candidate holds a narrow lead at 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent among likely voters and 49 percent to 47 percent among all registered voters. Among all adults, excluding those who are unlikely to vote, the race has tightened with only a one-point difference between the two, well within the two-point margin of error.

These numbers mark a substantial gain for Trump since mid-September when a similar poll showed him trailing Harris by five points.

A CBS/YouGov poll, conducted from Oct. 8 to 11, also shows a similar result, with Harris holding a 51 percent to 48 percent lead over Trump among likely voters. This slight edge is just outside the 2.3 percentage margin of error and represents a one-point drop for Harris since September.

Additionally, an NBC poll, conducted from Oct. 4 to 8 among registered voters, shows the candidates tied at 48 percent, with a one-point loss for Harris and a four-point gain for Trump over the past month.

Meanwhile, in key battleground states, polls show that candidates narrowly lead each other.

A Wall Street Journal poll, conducted among voters in the seven key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, reveals that Trump leads Harris by a razor-thin margin of 46 percent to 45 percent. Trump holds an advantage in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Harris has the upper hand in the remaining four states.

Trump and Harris have been locked in dead heat since September

That Trump and Harris are locked in dead heat has been evident in other polls conducted in September.

A Rasmussen poll, conducted among 1,893 likely voters, reveals that Trump narrowly led Harris at 47 percent to 46 percent, leaving three percent undecided and another three percent favoring third-party candidates. Both candidates have strong backing within their parties, with Trump supported by 87 percent of Republicans and Harris by 84 percent of Democrats. Among independents, Trump leads Harris by five points.

Demographically, Trump has an edge among White (51 percent) and Hispanic (52 percent) voters, while Harris is favored by Black voters (67 percent). The two are nearly tied among non-Black minority voters. Harris has substantial support from liberals (87 percent), while Trump holds 74 percent of conservative voters.

Economic factors also influence voter preferences, with higher earners (over $200,000 annually) leaning toward Harris, while Trump is more popular among lower-income voters with annual incomes of between $30,000 to $50,000.

Other polls show similarly close results, with Harris leading slightly in Pennsylvania in a New York Times, Sienna College and the Philadelphia Inquirer poll.

A poll jointly conducted by The Hill and Emerson College also shows Harris leading by a slim margin in Michigan (49 percent to 47 percent) and North Carolina (49 percent to 48 percent). In contrast, the poll shows Trump has a small advantage in Arizona (49 percent to 48 percent), Georgia (50 percent to 47 percent), Pennsylvania (48 percent to 47 percent) and Wisconsin (49 percent to 48 percent). The two candidates are tied in Nevada at 48 percent.

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